PROJECT BACKGROUND
Alberta Environment and Parks (AEP) is developing caribou range plans for the maintenance or recovery of Alberta’s fifteen caribou populations as outlined in the Government of Canada’s Recovery Strategies that:
• Address Alberta’s policy commitment to stabilize, recover and achieve naturally sustaining caribou populations;
• Address the federal caribou recovery strategies under Canada’s Species at Risk Act;
• Describe how Alberta’s 15 provincially managed woodland caribou populations will be managed to sustain or attain 65% undisturbed habitat while considering environmental, social and economic needs.
To support this initiative, landscape modeling and analysis is required to evaluate stakeholder feedback, consider alternative futures, evaluate opportunities to protect caribou critical habitat and achieve provincial and federal goals and objectives for caribou recovery, while considering social and economic development.
PROJECT OBJECTIVES
This project addresses the need to spatially model and forecast future landscapes, evaluate key indicators, and provide support services required in the development of range plans and associated products for the 15 caribou ranges within the province. These include:
• Northeast ranges: Red Earth, Richardson, West Side Athabasca, East Side Athabasca and Cold Lake;
• Northwest ranges: Bistcho, Caribou Mountains, Yates and Chinchaga;
• West Central ranges: Narraway, Redrock-Prairie Creek, Little Smoky and A La Peche; and
• Nipisi and Slave Lake.
The technical and support work must:
• Document the current landscape condition.
• Report on multiple industrial and caribou habitat management scenarios in an iterative process.
• Map the forecasted location of habitat resulting from different management scenarios.
• Report forecasted indicators including sustainable timber harvest levels, caribou habitat metrics, kilometers of linear features (stratified by type), hectares of footprint (stratified by type), undisturbed habitat as defined by the federal caribou recovery strategies, mountain pine beetle susceptibility, and indicators of likely energy resource development.
• Support constraint-based solutions (e.g. determining optimal (or near optimal) timber harvest level in support of a specific caribou habitat outcome).
• Evaluate the potential effect of wildfire.
• Evaluate and clarify the effect of selected technical assumptions (sensitivity analysis).
• As requested, meet with department personnel and external stakeholders to exchange information on model inputs and outputs.
• Prepare interim technical reports to share key aspects of model formulation (input data, major technical assumptions) and results of forecasts; with a final report towards the end of the project describing the work completed and results.
• Technical support for provincial engagement sessions and collaborative initiatives between AEP and a variety of stakeholders.
• Assist in the development of communication products.
The work will contribute to developing an understanding of relationships between caribou habitat and existing/potential future industrial development, and refine management options for further consideration and potential implementation.
